The beef industry has been waiting years for the herd to rebuild, and researchers at CattleFax say it is happening, but note it is taking a lot longer than originally thought.
Despite the higher prices, they say consumers are still buying up all they can.
“It does look like when we look back, January of 2025 will be the low in the beef cow herd. So, as I look at the numbers out here, I think it’s important that people recognize that our per capita beef supplies are pretty flat. They haven’t changed much. This price increase that we’re experiencing in the industry is demand-driven. Beef demand is at a 37-year high, and I think when people think about demand, obviously, quality has been the key to that. We’ve seen the quality of the animals being produced has increased substantially,” said CattleFax CEO Randy Blach.
Researchers at RaboBank have also been tracking the numbers. They say that hot consumer demand is likely here to stay.
“And I’m here to tell you, as we look at early 2025, all indications are that demand is going to continue to set new near-term record highs, looking like the best demand we’ve seen since 1986 at the moment. And a lot of that’s due to the fact that even though the consumer pricing is going up, and even though the consumer’s increasingly stressed, buying beef at retail is still a relatively cheap lifestyle upgrade that the consumer can make,” said Lance Zimmerman.
The latest Cattle On Feed report shows inventories are down two percent compared to last year at this time. Only two states saw an increase: Kansas herds grew by three percent, and Oklahoma herds grew by two percent.
An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.
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Texas A&M livestock economist Dr. David Anderson joins Tony St. James to discuss the geopolitical tensions and U.S.-Mexico border closure that are leading to sharp swings in the cattle market.
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Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
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RFD-TV tax expert Roger McEowen discusses the renewed tax provision and how cattle producers can take advantage of it to recover investments in heifer retention and herd expansion more quickly.
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The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
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Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
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