Is the U.S. hog herd ready to expand? Economists say it’s possible

While America’s ranchers work to rebuild the cattle herd, economists say something is brewing with hogs.

New data shows the U.S. hog herd could be ready to expand. They have been crunching the numbers and say feed costs are the largest indicator right now.

“The hog-to-corn price ratio just rounds up to 20 for the last two quarters. Last Friday’s closing prices for the same month’s hog and corn futures contracts suggest ratios exceeding 27 in July and 20 in December 2025, and remaining above 20 in May 2026. If such levels persist, perhaps some breeding herd growth could be observed in subsequent quarterly reports,” said Jason Franken.

Franken has been studying these numbers for a while now. He says that if those levels keep up, future reports could show breeding herd growth down the line.

Related Stories
CWD is an infectious, degenerative disease of cervids that causes brain cells to die, ultimately leading to the death of the affected animal.
The latest Meat Demand Monitor shows strong retail demand for beef products like ribeye steaks and ground beef.
Andy Tauer from the National Pork Board discusses efforts to boost pork demand and how the industry is responding to trade restrictions related to pseudorabies.
USDA’s first 2026/27 outlook shows tighter supplies across several markets, led by wheat, corn, cotton, rice, beef, and sugar.
American beef and pork products are gaining visibility in Colombian butcher shops through training and merchandising programs.
Based on USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation, pork exports increased by six percent in March compared to the previous year, while beef exports weakened overall.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Cindy Kovar with AgriSafe joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to talk about road safety and agriculture as we age.
USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
Record U.S. sorghum crop faces weak demand as China slashes imports, while corn farmers warn of rising costs, shrinking margins, and global market pressures.
Fewer cattle on feed suggest smaller slaughter numbers this winter, which could support strong prices if beef demand holds firm.
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
With the latest detection just across the border, animal health officials on both sides are intensifying efforts to contain the outbreak before it spreads further north.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.