Is the U.S. hog herd ready to expand? Economists say it’s possible

While America’s ranchers work to rebuild the cattle herd, economists say something is brewing with hogs.

New data shows the U.S. hog herd could be ready to expand. They have been crunching the numbers and say feed costs are the largest indicator right now.

“The hog-to-corn price ratio just rounds up to 20 for the last two quarters. Last Friday’s closing prices for the same month’s hog and corn futures contracts suggest ratios exceeding 27 in July and 20 in December 2025, and remaining above 20 in May 2026. If such levels persist, perhaps some breeding herd growth could be observed in subsequent quarterly reports,” said Jason Franken.

Franken has been studying these numbers for a while now. He says that if those levels keep up, future reports could show breeding herd growth down the line.

Related Stories
Based on USDA data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation, pork exports increased by six percent in March compared to the previous year, while beef exports weakened overall.
New trade access, tariff concerns and international negotiations are reshaping the global beef market.
National Pork Producers Council President Rob Brenneman joins us to discuss Prop 12 provisions in the House’s Farm Bill as it heads to the Senate for debate.
Officials say no additional spread has been detected as containment and monitoring efforts move forward.
Tyson is still reshaping its beef footprint.
Industry leaders gather in Mexico City to strengthen trade and showcase product quality.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Ag leaders say President Donald Trump’s State of the Union is unlikely to spark major agriculture headlines, but ongoing tariff uncertainty and trade policy remain key concerns, as does the debate around glyphosate and the status of the next Farm Bill.
RFD Farm Legal & Tax expert Roger McEowen shares guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, its impact on renewable energy and agriculture, and what producers should know moving forward.
Singer-songwriter and RanchHER Clare Dunn reflects on the importance of National FFA Week, her time in FFA, and her commitment to advocating for agriculture and rural issues.
FFA Western Region Vice President Jael Cruikshank talks about the importance of community service and how National FFA Organization members are making a difference in their communities during National FFA Week.
Ranger Road Fire has burned 283,000 acres across Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle and is nearing containment, as ranchers begin assessing cattle and infrastructure losses as they look toward recovery.
National FFA Secretary Lilly Nyland talks about the significance of National FFA Week, member engagement, and the influence FFA continues to have on students nationwide.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.