The U.S. dairy industry is growing, providing ample opportunity for producers. The $76 billion category is larger than any other, including alcohol.
However, CoBank economist Corey Geiger warns that the growth does not come without some challenges.
“Sixteen to 17% of our dairy products go to export in the United States,” Geiger explains. “So with the word ‘tariff’ coming about...you know, issues in that area, we might see a little bit of slowed sales. The upward trajectory in the dairy industry is strong, and actually, in 2024, milk beverage sales, fluid milk, were actually stable. So, if we can stabilize that category and see great growth in cheese, butter, and whey proteins—it’s a bright future.”
While those tariff concerns have been held off for a month, the market is still facing unprecedented volatility.
“We were looking at a little more supportive to that market just a couple of weeks ago, but the unprecedented volatility in the cheese market and demand being about a half a percent slower, and then the perception on what tariffs could do really kind of knocked the support out under that market,” notes JSA Dairy Division Lead Robin Schmahl. “And so, we might be looking at something a little bit less as far as an average price than what we were looking at maybe about three weeks ago.”
The USDA’s latest milk production estimates show that in December, milk in the 24 major producing states totaled 18 billion pounds.
One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
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