NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Low water on the Mississippi River System is once again disrupting harvest logistics, reducing barge capacity at a critical time for U.S. grain exports. Following an unusually dry August in the Ohio River Basin—the driest on record—tributary flow into the lower Mississippi has dropped sharply.
Gauges at Cairo, IL, and Memphis, TN, are hovering just above low-water thresholds, prompting restrictions by the U.S. Coast Guard and dredging operations by the Army Corps of Engineers to keep navigation open. Restrictions now limit tow sizes and draft depths, cutting efficiency for both southbound grain and northbound fertilizer shipments.
The USDA projects record U.S. corn production this fall at 427 million metric tons, with exports expected to reach 75.6 mmt. Year-to-date sales are running 46 percent above average, with Mexico, Japan, and Colombia leading buyers. By contrast, soybean export sales are down sharply, as China has yet to finalize purchases, although soybean meal exports are expected to reach record levels.
Barge freight rates out of Cairo and Memphis have risen 31 percent over the past month but remain well below the extreme highs of 2022. Analysts note that lessons learned since then, combined with lower soybean export volumes, have tempered rate spikes. Still, strong corn exports and any rebound in soybean demand could add pressure if river conditions deteriorate further.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers face tighter barge capacity and higher freight costs during peak harvest. Strong corn exports may further strain logistics if low water levels persist, although weaker soybean exports are currently tempering rate spikes.
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
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