NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Cattle markets are setting up for a significant supply squeeze in late spring and early summer 2026 as sharply lower feedlot placements in December 2025 work their way through the system. According to analysis from Hyrum Egbert, Author of The Big Bad Beef Packer newsletter on LinkedIn, the decline points directly to tighter fed-cattle availability during a period when packer demand is typically strongest.
December placements fell to just 89 percent of year-ago levels nationwide, with the deepest cuts concentrated in core feeding states. Texas placements were at roughly 83 percent of last year, Kansas at nearly 80 percent, and Colorado at about 78 percent. Those cattle would normally be harvested about 150 to 160 days later, creating what Egbert describes as a “supply air pocket” centered on May and June.
That timing matters. Late spring and early summer are historically peak demand periods for beef, and packers rely on steady throughput to control costs. With fewer cattle in the pipeline, plant utilization rates are likely to remain under pressure, even after recent capacity reductions.
Egbert notes the issue is structural rather than temporary. Lower placements today mathematically guarantee tighter supplies tomorrow, regardless of demand conditions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Reduced winter placements indicate tighter fed cattle supplies and greater leverage during peak-demand months.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Bigger cows must wean proportionally heavier calves to justify higher ownership costs.
January 05, 2026 03:08 PM
·
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
January 05, 2026 03:00 PM
·
Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
January 05, 2026 02:49 PM
·
Cotton demand depends on demonstrating performance and reliability buyers can rely on, not messaging alone.
January 05, 2026 02:41 PM
·
A look at the legislative year ahead as lawmakers return to Washington with a slate of trade concerns to tackle in 2026—from new Chinese tariffs on beef imports to the USMCA review this summer.
January 05, 2026 12:20 PM
·
Shaun Haney, Host of
RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
January 05, 2026 10:41 AM
·
The New Year is here, but in Oregon, some ranchers and livestock producers are still trying to recover from record wildfires back in 2024.
January 05, 2026 09:46 AM
·
As markets anticipate a return to normal trading following the New Year’s holiday, the possibility of the southern border re-opening to cattle is capturing much attention.
December 30, 2025 11:28 AM
High ownership does not always translate into high output, underscoring the importance of structural differences in understanding state-level farm performance.
December 28, 2025 03:00 PM
·
