NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Cattle markets are setting up for a significant supply squeeze in late spring and early summer 2026 as sharply lower feedlot placements in December 2025 work their way through the system. According to analysis from Hyrum Egbert, Author of The Big Bad Beef Packer newsletter on LinkedIn, the decline points directly to tighter fed-cattle availability during a period when packer demand is typically strongest.
December placements fell to just 89 percent of year-ago levels nationwide, with the deepest cuts concentrated in core feeding states. Texas placements were at roughly 83 percent of last year, Kansas at nearly 80 percent, and Colorado at about 78 percent. Those cattle would normally be harvested about 150 to 160 days later, creating what Egbert describes as a “supply air pocket” centered on May and June.
That timing matters. Late spring and early summer are historically peak demand periods for beef, and packers rely on steady throughput to control costs. With fewer cattle in the pipeline, plant utilization rates are likely to remain under pressure, even after recent capacity reductions.
Egbert notes the issue is structural rather than temporary. Lower placements today mathematically guarantee tighter supplies tomorrow, regardless of demand conditions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Reduced winter placements indicate tighter fed cattle supplies and greater leverage during peak-demand months.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Large-scale land purchases signal rising competition for ranchland, reinforcing its value while reshaping long-term access and control in rural agriculture.
January 23, 2026 07:00 AM
·
While row crops are expected to see softer impacts, analysts say severe weather of this magnitude will not be as kind to cattle producers.
January 22, 2026 11:05 AM
·
Dairy farmer and Discover Ag co-host Tara Vander Dussen joined us to discuss the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, her experience at the signing, and what’s next for her family and farm.
January 21, 2026 12:42 PM
·
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
·
Wayne Cockrell with the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association joined us to discuss preparedness, producer awareness, and the industry’s response to New World screwworm concerns.
January 21, 2026 12:00 PM
·
Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
January 21, 2026 10:36 AM
·
