NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Cattle markets are setting up for a significant supply squeeze in late spring and early summer 2026 as sharply lower feedlot placements in December 2025 work their way through the system. According to analysis from Hyrum Egbert, Author of The Big Bad Beef Packer newsletter on LinkedIn, the decline points directly to tighter fed-cattle availability during a period when packer demand is typically strongest.
December placements fell to just 89 percent of year-ago levels nationwide, with the deepest cuts concentrated in core feeding states. Texas placements were at roughly 83 percent of last year, Kansas at nearly 80 percent, and Colorado at about 78 percent. Those cattle would normally be harvested about 150 to 160 days later, creating what Egbert describes as a “supply air pocket” centered on May and June.
That timing matters. Late spring and early summer are historically peak demand periods for beef, and packers rely on steady throughput to control costs. With fewer cattle in the pipeline, plant utilization rates are likely to remain under pressure, even after recent capacity reductions.
Egbert notes the issue is structural rather than temporary. Lower placements today mathematically guarantee tighter supplies tomorrow, regardless of demand conditions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Reduced winter placements indicate tighter fed cattle supplies and greater leverage during peak-demand months.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Suderman joins Tony St. James in the RFD Studios to discuss how geopolitical tensions are triggering global transport disruptions, new inflation pressures, and other challenges for agriculture to navigate.
March 13, 2026 11:08 AM
·
Severe drought in South Texas is forcing ranchers to consider cattle sell-offs as feed and water supplies dwindle, threatening herd health and livestock operations.
March 12, 2026 05:09 PM
·
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney shares insights from new Real Agri-Studies research surrounding the relationship between farmers and their lenders and what it reveals about the current farm economy.
March 12, 2026 04:15 PM
·
Dr. David Anderson with Texas A&M University AgriLife Extension discusses how geopolitical tensions and the Middle East, along with export disruptions in the Chinese market, will shape cattle markets in the months ahead.
March 12, 2026 12:54 PM
·
A man accused of orchestrating a nationwide cattle investment fraud scheme has been arrested in California after being on the FBI’s wanted list.
March 12, 2026 11:33 AM
·
Refining shifts could influence fuel and input costs.
March 12, 2026 07:00 AM
·
