Market analysts on trade with China: “It’s not going to change on a whim”

As U.S. leaders work to secure more trade deals, there is still some hope that China will return to the U.S. soybean market.

The Senior Market Analyst for Barchart, and frequent Market Day Report guest, Darin Newsom says it might not happen again in our lifetimes.

“No, the U.S. is not going to regain its foothold. There’s nothing that’s going to happen that’s going to change that again. This is long-term damage that has been done in trade relations. Long-term to China is not what the U.S. thinks, which is hours to maybe days; it’s a very short attention span. The U.S. is known for its ADHD. China, long-term, is centuries, so you know, we’re not dealing with something that’s just going to change on a whim, much like what we see happening here in the U.S. So, no, the U.S. isn’t going to immediately jump back into the game. it’s going to take a long time to rebuild any sort of demand coming from China.”

Finding a trade balance with China has been a top priority for the Administration this week. Several cabinet members just returned from London after meeting with Chinese officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was part of that delegation, who is testifying before the House and Ways Committee currently.

Related Stories
Rail logistics remain supportive, with access to Mexico improving
The closure of Lubbock Feeders highlights mounting pressure on the U.S. cattle supply, according to the Texas Cattle Feeders Association, as border restrictions and costs strain feedyards.
U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade faces uncertainty in 2026 as tariffs and cartel violence threaten farmers and ranchers. Congressman Henry Cuellar and Texas leaders weigh in on impacts and risks.
Strong export demand supports barge markets, but weather risks remain.
A stalled World Trade Organization appeals body increases long-term trade policy risk for U.S. agriculture.
Policy awareness is becoming part of everyday risk management.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farm CPA Paul Neiffer provided insight on updated PLC rate estimates, the role of base acres, and the upcoming enrollment window for ARC and PLC programs.
Farm Bureau economist Danny Munch explains the importance of timely enrollment, and how the program helps dairy producers safeguard their operations against volatile milk markets.
National FFA Organization CEO Scott Stump shares the importance of Give FFA Day, how contributions support students, and why today is an opportunity for everyone to help invest in the future of agriculture.
USDA Farmer Bridge Assistance payments could begin this weekend as producers face tight margins, shifting acreage expectations, cattle herd contraction, and growing pressure for a stronger farm safety net.
Delays on year-round E15 keep potential corn demand and fuel savings in limbo.
Analysts warn the closed U.S.-Mexico border is straining cattle supplies and packing capacity. StoneX and USDA data point to long-term industry shifts.