WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — U.S.-China tensions flare again, hitting shipments and raising questions for farmers this month. Analysts warn China is making long-term plays in global agriculture, raising new questions for U.S. farmers.
Tit-for-Tat on Tariffs and Port Fees
We are starting to see a rebound in markets after Friday’s escalating tensions with China over global export controls on rare earth minerals. President Trump announced the potential for a new 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports.
Some analysts say that it is likely a starting point for further negotiations, but China responded with new port fees on U.S.-owned ships, adding to tension already weighing on farm exports. It is considered a tit-for-tat after port fees kick in this week, on Chinese-owned ships.
The markets are absorbing conflicting signals. Chinese exports and imports outside the U.S. remain resilient, suggesting any U.S. shortfall can be partly backfilled elsewhere—leaving U.S. soybeans to compete harder on price, freight, and reliability.
China has not bought any U.S. soybeans since May, and orders for beef, pork, and cotton are trailing recent years. Analysts say both sides could still adjust before more measures take effect later this month. So far, we have not heard of any new tariffs from China.
The American Soybean Association’s Caleb Ragland said farmers had hoped talks would reopen their single biggest market; instead, uncertainty is rising while China keeps diversifying purchases toward other regions.
Analysts note that Beijing is leveraging its dominance in rare earths and that a looming Supreme Court case on presidential tariff powers could reshape Washington’s toolbox, adding a fresh policy wild card.
Rare Earth Minerals: China’s Trade “Trump Card”
After Beijing tightened rare-earth export controls, President Trump scrapped a planned meeting with President Xi and threatened an additional 100% tariff—moves that clouded near-term export prospects.
“I’ve been warning our customers for months that rare earth minerals were eventually going to be China’s trump card; the question is when they would play it,” said Arlan Suderman. “And that’s not just against the United States. That’s against much of the world, especially the West-- but he even played it more extensively than we thought he would. He got to the point.”
Analysts with Stone-X Financial Inc. say Beijing’s long game goes beyond tariffs and has been heavily investing in Brazilian agriculture to secure key commodity exports, thereby building leverage over U.S. supply chains.
China’s Long Game: Big Moves in Brazilian Agriculture
Suderman adds that China is willing to take short-term pain for long-term gain.
“They’ve been investing in Brazilian infrastructure in agriculture for many years,” Suderman said. “It finally got to the point where Brazil had expanded its production and capabilities enough that he felt like he could get away without having the food-based commodities from the United States that he needed and could get them from Brazil and elsewhere.”
The timing of recent diplomatic talks is also drawing attention, including a call between President Trump and Brazil’s President Lula last week.
“The phone call on Monday was very little reported in the United States, widely reported in Brazil as being very positive and constructive toward a warming relationship between the United States and Brazil,” Suderman explained. “Maybe that was part of the timing question. I’m not sure. But in this case, I think President Trump is rightly responding strongly, even though it causes us some pause, because this is an issue that China cannot be allowed to get away with.”
