Mexican Avocado Volume Drop Sends Market Prices Higher

Avocado growers and buyers face sharp price swings when Mexican supply changes faster than alternative sources can respond.

avocado orchard_Photo by EVOGRAF.MX_AdobeStock_414334282.png

Photo by EVOGRAF.MX via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. avocado buyers saw sharply higher prices last week as Mexican supplies declined during the transition toward summer production. USDA reported average two-layer carton prices climbed nearly 48 percent in two weeks, from $25.61 to $37.82.

USDA data show Mexican avocado movement fell from 65.1 million pounds in the week ending May 2 to 48.6 million pounds two weeks later, before recovering slightly to 50.6 million pounds by May 23.

USDA’s Economic Research Service reports that Mexico accounted for 83 percent of fresh avocado import volume in 2025, leaving smaller origins limited in their ability to quickly replace lower shipments from Mexico. In addition, the country remains the dominant supplier for U.S. consumers.

California fruit may help ease the transition. The California Avocado Commission projects a 330-million-pound crop this year, including about 310 million pounds of Hass avocados, with shipments normally strengthening into summer.

The recent move shows how quickly price risk can rise when supply shifts in a produce market dependent on a single major origin.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Avocado growers and buyers face sharp price swings when Mexican supply changes faster than alternative sources can respond.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Higher freight rates and potential service disruptions are key concerns for agriculture, which relies heavily on rail to move commodities.
DOJ and USDA investigate beef industry concentration, with Big Four packers under scrutiny and a major settlement announcement expected later this week.
Nebraska cattle rancher Joe Van Newkirk joins us to discuss wildfire recovery in Nebraska’s Sandhills athe challenges ranchers face restoring basic infrastructure after the fire.
Farmers still earn only a small share of consumer food spending, even as post-farm costs continue to take most of the dollar.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

For dairy producers, that could help support fluid milk use in cafeterias, breakfast programs, and other child nutrition settings.
EU simplification may reduce some paperwork, but U.S. exporters still face costly traceability requirements.
Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
U.S. grain export inspections stayed solid for the week ending May 7, with corn still leading the export pace and soybeans posting a strong weekly rebound.
U.S. beef imports are running at a record pace while exports are falling, reflecting tight domestic cattle supplies and high U.S. beef prices.
ASFMRA’s Chad Hertz joins us to discuss farmland trends, economic pressures facing producers, and how outside influences are shaping today’s land market.