Mexican Avocado Volume Drop Sends Market Prices Higher

Avocado growers and buyers face sharp price swings when Mexican supply changes faster than alternative sources can respond.

avocado orchard_Photo by EVOGRAF.MX_AdobeStock_414334282.png

Photo by EVOGRAF.MX via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. avocado buyers saw sharply higher prices last week as Mexican supplies declined during the transition toward summer production. USDA reported average two-layer carton prices climbed nearly 48 percent in two weeks, from $25.61 to $37.82.

USDA data show Mexican avocado movement fell from 65.1 million pounds in the week ending May 2 to 48.6 million pounds two weeks later, before recovering slightly to 50.6 million pounds by May 23.

USDA’s Economic Research Service reports that Mexico accounted for 83 percent of fresh avocado import volume in 2025, leaving smaller origins limited in their ability to quickly replace lower shipments from Mexico. In addition, the country remains the dominant supplier for U.S. consumers.

California fruit may help ease the transition. The California Avocado Commission projects a 330-million-pound crop this year, including about 310 million pounds of Hass avocados, with shipments normally strengthening into summer.

The recent move shows how quickly price risk can rise when supply shifts in a produce market dependent on a single major origin.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Avocado growers and buyers face sharp price swings when Mexican supply changes faster than alternative sources can respond.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
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Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.