NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. milk production surged over the summer, climbing 3.6 percent year-over-year during June through August, while milkfat output jumped 5.3 percent, according to the latest Dairy Market Report from the National Milk Producers Federation.
Dairy cow numbers rose to 9.5 million head, and per-cow output averaged 6,153 pounds for the period — reflecting both strong productivity and rising milkfat composition, now averaging 4.2 percent.
Despite record-high production, fluid milk sales fell by four percent in August from a year earlier and 1.7 percent for the quarter, underscoring weak consumer demand. The all-milk price averaged $20.90 per hundredweight, modestly higher than July, while feed costs dropped enough to lift the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) margin to $11.52 per hundredweight. Still, retail dairy inflation remains mild — up just 0.7 percent from last year — compared with three percent overall food inflation.
Butter inventories declined 6 percent year-over-year, while American cheese stocks rose 3 percent. Wholesale butter prices tumbled to $2.04 per pound, down more than a dollar from last August, dragging Class II, III, and IV milk prices lower across the board. Analysts say margins may tighten again into late 2025 as milk output continues to expand faster than consumption, though international demand could lend some support.
Farm-Level Takeaway: High milk production and soft retail demand are squeezing prices and margins — making careful feed and risk management essential through year-end.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Tim and Sharyn Abbott of the Music City Celebration Sale recap the weekend’s premier auction, which drew top dairy breeders and buyers to Nashville again this year from across North America.
December 16, 2025 11:54 AM
·
The bill to once again allow schools to offer whole milk and 2% milk will now go to President Trump for approval.
December 16, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Fertilizer markets face uncertainty after President Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts warning of supply and pricing risks. Josh Linville with StoneX provides a fertilizer industry outlook.
December 15, 2025 01:35 PM
·
Regional differences indicate that family ownership is universal, but farm structure and commodity mix determine the extent to which these operations drive agricultural output.
December 15, 2025 01:03 PM
·
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
December 15, 2025 12:15 PM
·
The U.S. has a bountiful corn supply, but markets are waiting for the January WASDE Report, which will include updated yield estimates.
December 15, 2025 11:34 AM
·
