WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — Rising milk production is increasing supply in 2026, but stronger exports and improving dairy prices are helping support the market outlook for producers, according to the USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
Milk production is forecast at 235.3 billion pounds, driven by a larger dairy herd that is offsetting slightly lower output per cow. Cow numbers have expanded year over year, pushing overall production higher even as margins remain tighter than last year.
Wholesale dairy prices are showing mixed movement. Cheese and nonfat dry milk prices have strengthened, while butter and whey prices have softened. Strong demand, particularly in spot markets for nonfat dry milk, is tightening supplies and supporting price gains.
Exports remain a bright spot. Dairy export volumes reached record levels in February, with gains across cheese, butter, dry whey, and skim milk products. At the same time, imports have declined, tightening domestic supplies.
Despite stronger exports, domestic use is expected to soften slightly as higher prices weigh on consumption.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong exports and prices are helping offset rising milk supplies.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
October 29, 2025 03:04 PM
·
Cattle markets are collapsing this week, and analysts say that several factors are at play. Consumer beef prices also remain near all-time highs, threatening long-term demand.
October 29, 2025 12:58 PM
·
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
October 29, 2025 10:15 AM
·
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
Alan Bjerga, Senior Vice President of Communications with the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), shares updates and resources available to dairy producers.
October 28, 2025 02:03 PM
·
Shaun Haney, Host of RealAg Radio, discusses President Trump’s move to halt trade talks with Canada and Mexico over a commercial about tariffs launched by the Government of Ontario.
October 28, 2025 12:04 PM
·
