Milk Production Rises as Dairy Herd Expansion Continues Nationwide

Higher output keeps milk supplies ample, reinforcing expectations for softer dairy prices even as feed costs remain favorable.

herd of cows in cowshed on dairy farm_Photo by Syda Productions via AdobeStock_132201757.jpg

Photo by Syda Productions via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. dairy output strengthened early this year as herd growth and improved productivity pushed supplies higher across major producing regions.

USDA reported January milk production in the 24 major states totaled 19.1 billion pounds — up 3.4 percent from last year. Production per cow averaged 2,082 pounds, 24 pounds higher year-over-year, while cow numbers climbed to 9.15 million head, up 200,000 head from a year ago.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Expanding dairy herds continue to pressure the milk price outlook.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

California remained the largest producer at 3.51 billion pounds, rising 4.7 percent. Wisconsin followed at 2.75 billion pounds, up 2.1 percent. Texas jumped 7.6 percent to 1.60 billion pounds, while Idaho increased 3.2 percent to 1.54 billion pounds. New York grew 3.4 percent and Michigan rose 3.6 percent. Kansas showed one of the sharpest gains — up 26 percent — while South Dakota rose nearly 11 percent as expansion continues in the Upper Plains dairy corridor.

Some regions declined. New Mexico dropped 3.8 percent, Pennsylvania fell 3.0 percent, and Washington slipped 6.1 percent, reflecting regional cost pressures and herd adjustments.

Higher output keeps milk supplies ample, reinforcing expectations for softer dairy prices even as feed costs remain favorable.

Related Stories
R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard joins Market Day Report for his insight on the USDA’s plan to strengthen the U.S. beef industry.
Until a phased reopening is inked, plan for tighter feeder availability, firmer basis near border yards, and continued reliance on domestic and Canadian sources.
RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the USDA’s newly unveiled plan to rebuild the US beef herd and the industry’s spectrum of responses to it.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
Record Australian exports and rising U.S. imports reflect continued tight domestic cattle supplies — a reminder that herd recovery remains key to balancing future beef prices.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
Industry support ensures continued funding for mango marketing and research, helping sustain long-term demand growth.
Lower U.S. and Mexican production means tighter sugar supplies and greater reliance on imports headed into 2026.
Tyson’s closure reflects deep supply shortages in the U.S. cattle industry, tightening packing capacity, weakening competition, and signaling more volatility ahead for cow-calf producers and feedyards.
Lower tariff rates and new rail-service proposals may improve corn movement efficiency during early-season marketing.
Crop producers face tightening credit and lower incomes, while strong cattle markets continue to stabilize finances in livestock-heavy regions.