LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are entering 2026 under heavy pressure as global and domestic production continues to outpace demand, raising concerns about how quickly the market can work through a growing surplus.
According to analysis from Ben Laine of Terrain, the all-milk price fell to $20 per hundredweight in October, more than 20 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. milk production has expanded sharply, with output up more than 4 percent year over year late in 2025, driven by the largest milk cow herd in decades and higher per-cow productivity. At the same time, milk output has increased across the European Union and New Zealand, flooding global markets and intensifying price competition for exports.
Product markets adjusted quickly. Butter prices led the downturn, followed by cheese, as ample cream supplies and expanded processing capacity collided with weaker global pricing. Nonfat dry milk declined more modestly, while whey remained comparatively firm due to strong protein demand.
Despite lower prices, production may be slow to respond. Beef-on-dairy revenues and risk management coverage have softened the immediate financial signal for some producers. Still, higher slaughter rates suggest adjustment has begun.
Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
October 13, 2025 10:40 AM
·
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
October 09, 2025 05:10 PM
·
Searches for “struggle meal” hit a record high in September, and #strugglemeals posts are climbing on Instagram and TikTok, reflecting a wave of budget-cooking content.
October 09, 2025 03:14 PM
·
CoBank Lead Grains Economist Tanner Ehmke joins us to share insight and concerns over current grain storage capacity as export demand lags.
October 09, 2025 01:36 PM
·
Considering raising your own replacements instead of buying bred heifers? Three key factors to consider before investing capital.
October 08, 2025 03:03 PM
·
Reliable, clearly graded middle meats still anchor demand; programs that deliver consistent eating quality and simple, confidence-building menus capture more repeat visits—and more value—back through the beef chain.
October 08, 2025 12:57 PM
·
George Baird, with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA), joins us with updates on how this year’s rice harvest is shaping up.
October 07, 2025 03:12 PM
·
Expect firm demand for dependable HRS and SW, steady movement in HRW, more sorting on SRW, and selective bids on durum until full milling results are released.
October 07, 2025 03:02 PM
·
Market analyst Kevin Huddleston said news of trade deals could rebound cotton prices in late fall, and producers need to be ready to strike deals.
October 07, 2025 02:05 PM
·
