LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are entering 2026 under heavy pressure as global and domestic production continues to outpace demand, raising concerns about how quickly the market can work through a growing surplus.
According to analysis from Ben Laine of Terrain, the all-milk price fell to $20 per hundredweight in October, more than 20 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. milk production has expanded sharply, with output up more than 4 percent year over year late in 2025, driven by the largest milk cow herd in decades and higher per-cow productivity. At the same time, milk output has increased across the European Union and New Zealand, flooding global markets and intensifying price competition for exports.
Product markets adjusted quickly. Butter prices led the downturn, followed by cheese, as ample cream supplies and expanded processing capacity collided with weaker global pricing. Nonfat dry milk declined more modestly, while whey remained comparatively firm due to strong protein demand.
Despite lower prices, production may be slow to respond. Beef-on-dairy revenues and risk management coverage have softened the immediate financial signal for some producers. Still, higher slaughter rates suggest adjustment has begun.
Record corn and sorghum crops boost feed grain supplies, while reduced soybean and cotton production tighten outlooks for oilseeds and fiber markets.
January 13, 2026 12:53 PM
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Food prices increased in December, but not as much as expected, according to the latest Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
January 13, 2026 12:46 PM
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Structural efficiency supports cattle prices and resilience — breaking it risks higher costs and greater volatility.
January 13, 2026 08:00 AM
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Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.
January 12, 2026 03:51 PM
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Rising adoption of GLP-1 drugs may gradually reshape food demand, with potential downstream effects on protein markets and consumer purchasing patterns.
January 12, 2026 02:38 PM
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Winter Weather, Drought Shape Early 2026 Farm Conditions
January 12, 2026 11:00 AM
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As domestic production and blending slowed, export demand remained a clear bright spot.
January 11, 2026 12:00 PM
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Protein markets are fragmenting. Beef is supply-driven and more structurally expensive, whereas pork and poultry remain price-competitive.
January 10, 2026 07:00 AM
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Tight fed supplies shift margin risk to packers, strengthening cattle price leverage but increasing volatility.
January 09, 2026 03:36 PM
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