LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Profitable milk and cheaper feed in 2024 set the stage for a supply surge that’s now weighing on prices — and rippling into the beef complex. U.S. dairy cow numbers climbed to 9.52 million in August, the highest since 1993, with Texas at 699,000 head — the most since 1958. With more cows on line, processors are expanding capacity alongside them.
Output per cow is also up. August production reached 2,050 pounds per head — a record for the month and 1.3 percent above August 2024 — pushing three-month milk production 3.6 percent higher year over year. As product piles up, pricing has slipped: 40-lb cheddar blocks have ranged from $1.95 to $1.70 per pound and sit roughly 30 cents below last year; butter fell from $2.50 to about $1.70 by mid-October; and NFDM is near $1.14 — it’s low for 2025.
Those declines are flowing back to mailbox checks while cull dynamics tighten the beef pipeline. Beef cow slaughter remains lower, but dairy culling has matched last year since mid-year and could increase as margins narrow and cull values stay strong — absent any government buyout, the market will do the rationing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, November 17, 2025.
November 17, 2025 05:05 PM
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Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
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Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
November 17, 2025 01:20 PM
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Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
November 17, 2025 01:17 PM
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Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food inflation, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices for beef, eggs, and dairy.
November 16, 2025 03:00 PM
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ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
November 15, 2025 12:00 PM
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Higher menu prices and tax-free tips are reshaping restaurant economics, sharply lifting server take-home pay even as diners face higher out-the-door costs.
November 15, 2025 08:00 AM
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USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
November 14, 2025 05:26 PM
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The Dairy Checkoff’s new approach to consumer marketing helps farmers bridge the gap between physical vs. digital touchpoints and deliver more end sales.
November 14, 2025 01:52 PM
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