Minneapolis Fed Conference Flags Ongoing Agriculture Headwinds

Agriculture remains a key drag on regional growth amid weak prices and policy uncertainty.

A sillhouette of a man working on ag equipment with a farm and grain bins in the background_Cristen Clark_FarmHER S1_Ep 11

FarmHER Cristen Clark (Season 1, Episode 11)

FarmHER, Inc.

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA (RFD NEWS) — Economic growth across the Federal Reserve’s Ninth District continued in 2025, but agriculture remained a weak spot as lower commodity prices, high costs, and trade uncertainty weighed on farm states. That was a key takeaway from discussions at the Minneapolis Fed’s Regional Economic Conditions Conference held in early January.

While overall gross domestic product (GDP) expanded, growth was uneven and often volatile. In states such as North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana, agriculture played a central role in shaping economic outcomes, though not always positively. Farm profitability remained under pressure from depressed prices, elevated input costs, and high land rents.

Trade policy added another layer of strain. Economists noted that shifting tariff policies and retaliatory trade actions disrupted export markets critical to farm income. The stop-and-start nature of those policies made planning and risk management more difficult for producers.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Agriculture remains a key drag on regional growth amid weak prices and policy uncertainty.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Outside the farm sector, labor markets cooled but remained relatively tight, limiting relief on wage and service costs faced by agriculture. Construction and infrastructure shortages continued to drive up energy and transportation costs, indirectly affecting farm operations.

Looking ahead, conference participants said agriculture’s performance will remain closely tied to price recovery, export stability, and input cost moderation, all of which will shape rural economic conditions in 2026.

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Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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