Minneapolis Fed: Tariffs Not Primary Driver of Rising Goods Inflation

Input costs may stay elevated beyond tariff impacts.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — New analysis from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve suggests tariffs are not the main reason goods prices remain elevated, raising broader concerns for input costs across agriculture and rural economies.

Economists found core goods inflation continues to run above historical averages, but price increases do not align with where tariffs should have the biggest impact. Some goods with high tariff exposure have seen limited inflation, while others with low tariffs have posted stronger price gains.

The report estimates tariffs are contributing only about 0.5 percentage points to overall inflation, meaning other factors — including supply chain shifts, demand changes, and pricing behavior — are playing a larger role. Inflation in goods remains elevated at roughly 1.9% year-over-year, well above pre-pandemic norms.

For agriculture, that disconnect matters. Equipment, inputs, and consumer goods tied to farm operations may continue rising in cost even if tariff pressures ease, complicating budgeting decisions.

The findings also suggest that some price increases may still be working their way through the system, especially as inventories turn and contracts reset.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Input costs may stay elevated beyond tariff impacts.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
A SCOTUS ruling on Trump’s tariffs could have long-term implications on the authority of future administrations to control U.S. trade policy, according to RFD-TV legal expert Roger McEowen.
RaboResearch says China’s pivot from mass production to innovation-driven growth could reshape global pesticide supply chains — and influence prices and product access for U.S. farmers in the coming years.
Farmers for Free Trade Executive Director Brian Kuehl shares more about the tour to gather farmers’ insights on the economic challenges they face in the ag economy.
Expect modest relief on several produce lines, mixed protein trends into holiday buying, and softer veg-oil costs — a good week to sharpen forward buys selectively.
RFD-TV’s farm legal expert, Roger McEowen, digs into the details of both the LRP and the LGM programs, two essential risk management tools for cattle producers.
USDA will meet part of November SNAP benefits under court direction, citing insufficient funds for full payments.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Stronger sorghum genetics could enhance the resilience of bioenergy crops and broaden production options for growers in harsher climates.
Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Outdated reporting thresholds reduce cash-market visibility and increase the urgency of comprehensive Mandatory Price Reporting reform.
Rural employers are slightly more optimistic, but labor shortages and renewed price pressures continue to limit growth across farm country according to a