New numbers show China may not be able to hold off trade talks for much longer. One commodity analyst says the pressure is mounting and warns China may soon need to re-engage.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned tariff rates will return to reciprocal levels if deals are not soon reached. Chinese officials were confident heading into the latest tariff talks, but StoneX Economist Arlan Suderman says that confidence may be rooted in a strategic wait-and-see approach.
“Right now, China believes that it is in a better position than the United States, because it can control the message, and it believes that if it waits out Trump, that he’ll lose public support here in the United States, and Congress will clip his wings, so to speak, and then China won’t have to give up anything, because they watch the news. They see the negative reporting, and that’s what they’re banking on right now, so overall, they’re holding out for that, and they feel if they negotiate, they’ll get a worse story.”
Suderman adds that factory slowdowns, layoffs, and rising debt are hurting China’s economy and could be enough to bring them back to the negotiating table.
Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans, and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
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