New numbers show China may not be able to hold off trade talks for much longer. One commodity analyst says the pressure is mounting and warns China may soon need to re-engage.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned tariff rates will return to reciprocal levels if deals are not soon reached. Chinese officials were confident heading into the latest tariff talks, but StoneX Economist Arlan Suderman says that confidence may be rooted in a strategic wait-and-see approach.
“Right now, China believes that it is in a better position than the United States, because it can control the message, and it believes that if it waits out Trump, that he’ll lose public support here in the United States, and Congress will clip his wings, so to speak, and then China won’t have to give up anything, because they watch the news. They see the negative reporting, and that’s what they’re banking on right now, so overall, they’re holding out for that, and they feel if they negotiate, they’ll get a worse story.”
Suderman adds that factory slowdowns, layoffs, and rising debt are hurting China’s economy and could be enough to bring them back to the negotiating table.
The impacts of the government shutdown have reached commodity growers with crops to move, ag economists monitoring the harvest without key data reporting, and meat producers in need of new export markets.
October 16, 2025 01:03 PM
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In a statement provided to RFD-TV News, a USDA spokesperson reiterated President Trump and the USDA’s commitment to farmers in difficult economic times.
October 16, 2025 11:57 AM
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China is not one of our top suppliers of cooking oil, according to USDA ERS data, but does export a lot of used cooking oil to the U.S. for biofuel production.
October 15, 2025 12:13 PM
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Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
October 14, 2025 04:30 PM
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New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
October 14, 2025 11:33 AM
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President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
October 14, 2025 11:12 AM
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Escalating U.S.–China tensions threaten soybean demand as farm finances are stretched further.
October 13, 2025 10:40 AM
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ock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
October 09, 2025 05:06 PM
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October 09, 2025 11:36 AM
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