National Crop Progress and Agribusiness Update—Monday, January 5, 2026

Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions

Crop Progress Graphic

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — As the calendar turns to 2026, producers across the country are balancing winter weather management with early marketing and planning decisions. Livestock markets remain supply-driven, grain movement is seasonally uneven, and moisture conditions continue to shape outlooks for winter wheat, forage, and specialty crops. Input costs, logistics, and policy developments remain front of mind as producers position for the year ahead.

Great Plains

  • Texas — Cattle supplies remain tight, with feeder availability limited and border uncertainty still impacting placement decisions. Wheat pasture conditions remain mixed, with dryland acres needing moisture. Cotton ginning is largely complete, and marketing decisions are extending into early 2026.
  • Oklahoma — Winter wheat stands remain uneven, with grazing pressure increasing where moisture was adequate. Cow-calf operators focused on winter feed management.
  • Kansas — Feedlot inventories steady, but placements remain constrained. Wheat is fully dormant under mixed soil moisture conditions.
  • Nebraska — Corn movement supported by ethanol demand, keeping interior basis firm. Cold weather raises feedlot energy costs.
  • North & South Dakota — Grain movement slowed by winter weather. Calf marketing is steady but lighter as producers retain inventory.

Midwest

  • Iowa — Ethanol production continues to support corn demand, though margins are mixed. Hog producers are monitoring price pressure and feed costs.
  • Illinois — Interior basis stronger than river markets amid seasonal barge disruptions. Fertilizer and input purchasing are underway.
  • Indiana & Ohio — Corn and soybean marketing decisions tied closely to export demand and early 2026 price outlooks.
  • Minnesota & Wisconsin — Dairy margins are tightening as national milk production rises. Feed supplies are adequate, but energy costs remain elevated.

Delta & South

  • Arkansas — Rice and soybean marketing steady; barge traffic improving but still weather-sensitive.
  • Louisiana — Grain movement slowed by river conditions; export demand mixed.
  • Mississippi — Corn and soybean basis stable; producers watching logistics closely.
  • Georgia & Alabama — Cotton marketing continues; poultry integrators managing higher feed costs.
  • Florida — Vegetable producers are dealing with lingering drought stress in northern areas and increasing irrigation demands.

West & Southwest

  • California — Strong milk production continues to pressure dairy prices. Vegetable and processing tomato sectors are adjusting to high yields and softer pricing.
  • Arizona & New Mexico — Forage availability stable; livestock producers focused on water management and winter feed.
  • Colorado & Utah — Wheat and forage crops dormant; livestock operations focused on weather protection and feed costs.
  • Nevada — Hay movement steady; water availability shaping longer-term planning.

Northwest & Northern Rockies

  • Washington & Oregon — Grain exports remain active despite recent rail challenges. Tree fruit storage and marketing are ongoing.
  • Idaho — The potato and dairy sectors are monitoring price pressures amid strong production levels.
  • Montana & Wyoming — Cattle markets steady; hay supplies adequate, though winter conditions are increasing costs.

Northeast

  • New York & Pennsylvania — Dairy producers reviewing risk management strategies as milk supplies expand nationally.
  • Maryland & Delaware — Grain movement steady; poultry operations adjusting to higher energy expenses.
  • New England — Specialty crop and greenhouse operations focused on winter energy costs and local market demand.

Upper Midwest & Great Lakes

  • Michigan — Dry beans, sugar beets, and dairy are facing margin pressure. Basis is stronger away from river terminals.
  • Wisconsin — Cheese production supporting milk demand, but rising supplies continue to weigh on prices.

Far North & Territories

  • Alaska — Feed and fuel logistics remain costly; producers focused on winter supply security.
  • U.S. Territories — Freight delays and transportation costs continue to challenge agricultural input and output flows.
Related Stories
Georgia Ag Commissioner Tyler Harper explains the growing threat of invasive hornets in his state and what Southeastern growers should watch for this spring.
$2 million project tests fogging system to stop the virus in poultry facilities
Overall, the report suggests a shift toward more comfortable supply levels, with demand emerging as a key factor to watch in the months ahead.
Sponsored
Matt Dolch with Syngenta discusses rootworm pressure, the latest trait technologies, and how corn growers can plan for 2027.
CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.
Strong corn and China-driven demand support the pace of U.S. grain exports. RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney discusses Canada-China agricultural trade talks.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

AFBF Economist Danny Munch joined us to discuss snowpack levels in the Colorado River Basin, water supply concerns, and the potential impact on agricultural production.
Congressman Gary Palmer of Alabama joined us to discuss federal overreach, transparency efforts, and legislative solutions impacting agriculture on this week’s Champions of Rural America.
Donald Chase of Chase Farms joined us to discuss drought conditions, planting progress, input costs, and the outlook for Georgia agriculture.
Fuel costs are shaping food and demand patterns.
Strong demand persists despite short-term price pressure.
High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.