Harvest is around the corner, and as farmers begin looking ahead to next year, fertilizer will be a big input to consider. It is also one of the most volatile markets.
Researchers at the University of Illinois found nitrogen prices have been as much as 20 percent higher this year over last. While prices are down significantly from highs we saw in early 2022, they are still above historical trends.
Analysts expect anhydrous to hold at $750-$800 per ton through the fall. They also suggest getting price quotes from multiple sources given everyone’s tight financial situations lately.
Analysts with DTN found no major changes over the last week on prices of some of the most popular fertilizers. However, looking back one year, seven of the eight major fertilizers are now more expensive.
UAN-32 takes the lead, coming in 32 percent more expensive than last year. The only fertilizer to see a year-over-year price drop is potash, coming in four percent off this time last year.
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Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
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Tariff relief and new trade agreements may temper food costs by reducing import costs.
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Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
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Only properly documented, unexhausted fertilizer applied by prior owners may qualify for Section 180 expensing; broader nutrient-based claims carry significant legal and tax risk.
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Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
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