LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Oil and gas companies are planning for a period of modest prices and elevated uncertainty, a combination that could influence fuel costs, rural economies, and agricultural input expenses through 2026. The latest Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey shows executives budgeting conservatively as activity remains soft and outlooks stay cautious.
Survey respondents expect West Texas Intermediate crude oil to average about $62 per barrel by the end of 2026, with longer-term expectations rising to $69 in 2 years and $75 in 5 years. Natural gas prices are forecast near $4.19 per MMBtu at year-end 2026. Those levels suggest limited near-term price upside, reinforcing disciplined capital spending plans across the energy sector.
Operational challenges remain. Business activity stayed negative late in 2025, while uncertainty remained elevated. Production was largely flat, and oilfield service firms reported compressed margins, weaker equipment utilization, and lower prices for services. Employment also softened, with fewer hours worked and slower wage growth.
For agriculture, the outlook is mixed. Stable oil prices could help limit diesel, freight, and irrigation costs, while natural gas pricing will continue to influence fertilizer and energy expenses. At the same time, restrained drilling activity may reduce economic support in energy-dependent rural regions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Moderate oil prices may ease fuel costs, but continued caution in the energy sector could limit rural economic growth.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said an announcement would be made on Tuesday. However, that self-imposed deadline has now passed.
October 08, 2025 11:19 AM
·
Dr. Todd Davis, Chief Economist with the Indiana Farm Bureau, shares a snapshot of his state’s harvest conditions and insights from producers.
October 07, 2025 02:37 PM
·
Congress has just over a month of working days left for the year. Plan for uneven USDA service until funding is restored, and closely monitor Farm Bill talks, as avoiding Permanent Law before January 1 is the single biggest risk to markets and milk prices.
October 07, 2025 11:09 AM
·
Despite tariffs having a less significant impact on exports, corn producers struggle with tariff-related increases on inputs, which complicates their bottom line.
October 06, 2025 01:13 PM
·
Jack Daniel’s will end its Cow Feeder Program, which served around 100 livestock operations near the distillery, and redirect spent grains to its anaerobic digester.
October 06, 2025 12:33 PM
·
Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans, and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
October 06, 2025 11:56 AM
·
Software developers at John Deere Digital are addressing challenges with their new Operations Center, which helps farmers make decisions on the fly.
October 06, 2025 11:51 AM
·
Agricultural exports continue to be a key contributor to rural employment. However, rural businesses still struggle to fill numerous job openings.
October 06, 2025 10:46 AM
·
Dave Kestel, a farmer from Will County and member of the Illinois Farm Bureau, joins us to share a boots-on-the-ground update on the 2025 corn harvest.
October 03, 2025 02:30 PM
·
