LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Oil and gas companies are planning for a period of modest prices and elevated uncertainty, a combination that could influence fuel costs, rural economies, and agricultural input expenses through 2026. The latest Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey shows executives budgeting conservatively as activity remains soft and outlooks stay cautious.
Survey respondents expect West Texas Intermediate crude oil to average about $62 per barrel by the end of 2026, with longer-term expectations rising to $69 in 2 years and $75 in 5 years. Natural gas prices are forecast near $4.19 per MMBtu at year-end 2026. Those levels suggest limited near-term price upside, reinforcing disciplined capital spending plans across the energy sector.
Operational challenges remain. Business activity stayed negative late in 2025, while uncertainty remained elevated. Production was largely flat, and oilfield service firms reported compressed margins, weaker equipment utilization, and lower prices for services. Employment also softened, with fewer hours worked and slower wage growth.
For agriculture, the outlook is mixed. Stable oil prices could help limit diesel, freight, and irrigation costs, while natural gas pricing will continue to influence fertilizer and energy expenses. At the same time, restrained drilling activity may reduce economic support in energy-dependent rural regions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Moderate oil prices may ease fuel costs, but continued caution in the energy sector could limit rural economic growth.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
January 26, 2026 09:41 AM
·
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026.
January 23, 2026 04:40 PM
·
Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
January 23, 2026 01:54 PM
·
Congressman Adrian Smith of Nebraska joined us with the latest on efforts to secure year-round E15 sales.
January 23, 2026 01:12 PM
·
Rural population growth and stabilizing economic indicators point to post-pandemic recovery, but uneven income, shifting industries, and regional divides remain key challenges for rural communities.
January 23, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.
January 22, 2026 11:24 AM
·
Oil-led rallies can move soybean prices quickly, but sustained gains will require continued strength in soybean oil and broader biofuel demand signals.
January 22, 2026 10:39 AM
·
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 02:04 PM
·
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
January 20, 2026 12:25 PM
·
