NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
Dave Kestel, a farmer from Will County and member of the Illinois Farm Bureau, joins us to share a boots-on-the-ground update on the 2025 corn harvest.
October 03, 2025 02:30 PM
·
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this week that the government will intervene to help, following China’s withdrawal from the U.S. soybean market. One trader says the industry will remain in a holding pattern until Tuesday.
October 03, 2025 01:04 PM
·
University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitker says early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.
October 03, 2025 11:53 AM
·
Approximately 42,000 birds were affected in the outbreak, officials said.
October 03, 2025 10:50 AM
·
Beef demand could be influencing other economic sectors, as consumers adjust spending habits to prioritize higher-priced beef products.
October 02, 2025 01:39 PM
·
Dr. Beetham outlined the background of the EU’s decision to modernize seed regulations and where the process stands today, and its impact on global agriculture and food security.
October 02, 2025 01:24 PM
·
