President Trump is doubling down on his efforts to level the playing field on trade, including doubling the tariff rate on China.
Arlan Suderman with StoneX says China is a unique trade partner but notes the President has no time to waste.
“The thing to understand about China is they value relationship negotiations. You may have different values than I do, but if we have a relationship of respect, we can do business. So, President Trump focused on that during his first term, speaking very respectfully on Xi Jinping, and so, as a part of that Chinese culture, they like to negotiate face to face. But they kept dragging things out, and they forced Trump into 13 face-to-face negotiations, Trump and his team, and that drug it out for several years and bought time for China, and Trump’s saying, ‘This time, I don’t have that kind of time.’”
Suderman says Trump might also feel like he has the momentum right now. China’s economy is struggling far worse than it was in Trump’s first term, leaving them particularly vulnerable. Trump doubled their tariff rate to 20 percent this week after a previous 10 percent last month.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
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Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.
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Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
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Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
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Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
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Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
January 30, 2026 08:00 AM
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