Proposed Rail Merger Could Reshape Grain Transportation Markets

Rail consolidation could affect grain basis, freight rates, and service reliability across major producing regions.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A proposed $85 billion merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern could significantly alter rail competition, shipping costs, and service reliability for agricultural shippers if approved by federal regulators.

The Surface Transportation Board is reviewing the deal, which would create the nation’s first coast-to-coast freight railroad. Supporters argue that the combined network would streamline long-distance grain movements—especially shipments from the Midwest to Southeastern feed and milling markets—by reducing interchange delays at hubs like Chicago, St. Louis, Memphis, and New Orleans.

The companies project $4.2 billion in new revenue, $1 billion in annual cost savings, and diversion of more than 2 million truckloads per year to rail.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail consolidation could affect grain basis, freight rates, and service reliability across major producing regions.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Opponents, including competing railroads and shippers’ groups, warn that the merged carrier could control more than 40 percent of U.S. rail traffic, reducing competition and raising freight rates. They also cite risks of service disruptions, similar to consolidation problems during the 1990s rail mergers, which affected agricultural shipments.

Regulators rejected the initial application as incomplete and require revised market-share projections and additional competitive safeguards before formal review continues. A resubmission is expected in March, with a final decision likely next year.

Related Stories
We caught up with John Deere’s Hay & Forage Got-To Market Manager Kaylene Ballesteros to learn how tech is evolving how producers make hay, from baling efficiency to operator confidence.
Mexico has fallen behind by several hundred thousand acre-feet in required water deliveries to the United States, a shortfall that has had devastating consequences across the Rio Grande Valley.
Purdue University Professor of Agricultural Economics Dr. Jim Mintert shares a closer look at farmer sentiment and the key issues shaping the agricultural economy in January.
Stronger U.S.-Guatemala trade rules favor dependable, regionally integrated supply chains — rewarding execution and commitment over cost-only sourcing.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Shrinking slaughter capacity may delay heifer retention, complicating herd rebuilding plans.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Federal assistance has helped, but the most recent row-crop losses remain on producers’ balance sheets.
Rebuilding domestic textiles depends on automation and vertical integration, not tariffs or legacy manufacturing models.
Strong supplies and rising stocks point to continued price pressure unless demand accelerates.
Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Low prices are painful now, but production response could support stronger milk markets later in 2026.
The U.S. trade deal with Argentina creates new export opportunities for U.S. livestock and crop producers but also raises competitive concerns.