Boxed Beef Prices Surge Early on Tight Supplies

Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.

Spicy Beef Back Ribs_NCBA_19709441-g.jpeg

Photo by ricka_kinamoto via Adobe Stock

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Wholesale beef prices are moving higher earlier than normal this year, signaling tighter supplies and strong demand across cattle markets.

The Choice boxed beef cutout moved above $400 per hundredweight, up roughly $50 since the start of the year, according to analysis from Mississippi State University’s Josh Maples. The Select cutout also climbed sharply, reaching levels not seen since mid-2020. The spread between Choice and Select has remained narrow, indicating a limited premium for higher-grade cattle so far in 2026.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.
Ton St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Beef prices typically build gradually early in the year before peaking ahead of summer demand. This year’s move higher is happening sooner, reflecting tighter cattle supplies and reduced beef production. Buyers may also be stepping in earlier to secure product ahead of expected supply constraints later this spring.

Strength in Rib and Loin primals have driven much of the increase, with both cuts trending higher since mid-January and supporting the broader cutout. Firm boxed beef values continue to provide underlying support to fed cattle prices as the market moves toward peak seasonal demand.

Related Stories
Corey Geiger joined us to discuss his career in the dairy industry, receiving the Holstein Association USA Distinguished Leadership Award, priorities for young producers, and major takeaways from the National Holstein Convention.
Higher production costs remain a challenge, but growers say recent H-2A changes provide some labor relief.
As weather reduced this year’s crop, USDA also highlighted George Washington’s cherry legacy ahead of America 250.
Farmers Business Network suggests most producers stuck with their planting plans, though corn acreage could come in below USDA’s March estimate.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Pasture Stress Spreads While Row Crops Hold Steady
SNAP continued to account for the largest share of food assistance spending as participation and overall program costs increased.
A new report says stronger communication can help farmers navigate a more cautious lending environment.
USDA says states with higher SNAP payment error rates could face new financial responsibility under recently approved reforms.
Heavier cattle and hog weights helped offset lower slaughter, but overall beef and pork production remained below year-ago levels.
Productivity gains helped offset a smaller breeding herd, keeping overall U.S. pork supplies relatively steady