Boxed Beef Prices Surge Early on Tight Supplies

Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.

Spicy Beef Back Ribs_NCBA_19709441-g.jpeg

Photo by ricka_kinamoto via Adobe Stock

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Wholesale beef prices are moving higher earlier than normal this year, signaling tighter supplies and strong demand across cattle markets.

The Choice boxed beef cutout moved above $400 per hundredweight, up roughly $50 since the start of the year, according to analysis from Mississippi State University’s Josh Maples. The Select cutout also climbed sharply, reaching levels not seen since mid-2020. The spread between Choice and Select has remained narrow, indicating a limited premium for higher-grade cattle so far in 2026.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.
Ton St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Beef prices typically build gradually early in the year before peaking ahead of summer demand. This year’s move higher is happening sooner, reflecting tighter cattle supplies and reduced beef production. Buyers may also be stepping in earlier to secure product ahead of expected supply constraints later this spring.

Strength in Rib and Loin primals have driven much of the increase, with both cuts trending higher since mid-January and supporting the broader cutout. Firm boxed beef values continue to provide underlying support to fed cattle prices as the market moves toward peak seasonal demand.

Related Stories
Shaun Haney says the new blending targets could support ethanol demand as farmers face tight margins and strong export competition.
Charles Krause says farm tours, consumer education and growing demand for dairy protein are creating new opportunities for the industry.
Ben Pratt with The Mosaic Company joins us to discuss sulfur market disruptions, fertilizer production challenges, global supply chain impacts, and implications for farmers planning future input needs.
Entomologists say catching cotton jassid early can help limit damage before populations spread through a field.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

CoBank economist Abbi Prins joins us to discuss declining replacement heifer inventories, dairy-to-beef calf market shifts, pricing impacts, and implications for future milk supply.
USDA expects larger pork supplies in 2026 as exports remain strong despite lower hog price forecasts.
New research highlights the challenges beef and dairy producers face using the H-2A guestworker program.
Renewable Fuels Association data shows ethanol production declined last week, but stronger blending demand provided support.
A private acreage estimate points to fewer corn acres and more soybeans ahead of the USDA’s upcoming final acreage report this week.
The American Farm Bureau Federation says higher grocery prices are not translating into a larger share of the food dollar for farmers.