NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Jeramy Stephens with National Land Realty shares tips for fall and winter to guide landowners and farmers.
November 12, 2025 03:40 PM
·
Winter weather will challenge livestock producers working to rebuild their herds despite harsh conditions.
November 12, 2025 01:20 PM
·
A court decision that overturns Enlist labels would remove two major herbicides from use and reshape EPA’s future mitigation policies for other pesticides.
November 12, 2025 12:27 PM
·
Rural businesses report softer sales, tougher hiring, and restrained investment — a backdrop that can pinch farm support capacity even if posted prices cool.
November 12, 2025 12:22 PM
·
Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
November 12, 2025 12:16 PM
·
A Reuters report shows China has a soybean “glut,” finding stockpiles at Chinese ports are at record levels, with crushers there holding the most supplies since 2017.
November 12, 2025 10:55 AM
·
Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
November 11, 2025 11:21 AM
·
Pasture, Rangeland and Forage (PRF) interval selection—not just participation—drives protection levels as rainfall patterns become less predictable across the South.
November 11, 2025 11:06 AM
·
If the House concurs and the President signs, USDA services and farm-bill programs resume at full speed with authorities extended for another year.
November 11, 2025 10:46 AM
·
