NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
October 14, 2025 04:30 PM
·
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
October 14, 2025 12:03 PM
·
New U.S. fees on Chinese-owned and built ships took effect overnight, marking the latest escalation in maritime trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
October 14, 2025 11:33 AM
·
President Trump is expected to press Argentina to take a tougher stance on China in exchange for political and economic support.
October 14, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
October 13, 2025 04:34 PM
·
The FAA’s proposed rule to allow drones to operate beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) could soon revolutionize how farmers and ranchers manage their land.
October 13, 2025 03:39 PM
·
Nick Andersen, Nationwide’s VP of Agribusiness Claims, shares tips for managing weather-related risks in agriculture using their new Hail and Wind Alert Program.
October 13, 2025 01:57 PM
·
Tidal Grow Agri-Science joins us to celebrate Global Fertilizer Day, sharing how innovation continues to drive American agriculture forward.
October 13, 2025 12:20 PM
·
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging Congress and the Trump Administration to act quickly on behalf of American agriculture.
October 13, 2025 11:42 AM
·
