NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
China’s stricter inspection rules prompt Cargill to pause soybean exports from Brazil, briefly lifting U.S. soybean prices as traders anticipate potential shifts in global trade, as export demand remains supportive across all major U.S. commodities.
March 13, 2026 12:57 PM
·
Suderman joins Tony St. James in the RFD Studios to discuss how geopolitical tensions are triggering global transport disruptions, new inflation pressures, and other challenges for agriculture to navigate.
March 13, 2026 11:08 AM
·
Severe drought in South Texas is forcing ranchers to consider cattle sell-offs as feed and water supplies dwindle, threatening herd health and livestock operations.
March 12, 2026 05:09 PM
·
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney shares insights from new Real Agri-Studies research surrounding the relationship between farmers and their lenders and what it reveals about the current farm economy.
March 12, 2026 04:15 PM
·
Farm Bureau economist Dr. Faith Parum explains how geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East could further tighten fertilizer movement, increase fuel costs, and complicate planting decisions for U.S. farmers this spring.
March 12, 2026 03:57 PM
·
Farm CPA Paul Nieffer explains the Farmer Bridge Assistance payment limits, provides clarity on new legislation, and offers advice for producers considering business structure adjustments.
March 12, 2026 03:31 PM
·
