NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Stable blending demand continues to underpin corn use despite export volatility.
February 27, 2026 06:00 AM
·
At Commodity Classic in San Antonio, growers explore new herbicide options, John Deere’s latest 8 Series tractors, and cutting-edge ag technology shaping the 2026 planting season. Here are some of RFD NEWS’ highlights from the event so far.
February 26, 2026 02:57 PM
·
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer provided insight on updated PLC rate estimates, the role of base acres, and the upcoming enrollment window for ARC and PLC programs.
February 26, 2026 02:42 PM
·
Farm Bureau economist Danny Munch explains the importance of timely enrollment, and how the program helps dairy producers safeguard their operations against volatile milk markets.
February 26, 2026 02:25 PM
·
USDA Farmer Bridge Assistance payments could begin this weekend as producers face tight margins, shifting acreage expectations, cattle herd contraction, and growing pressure for a stronger farm safety net.
February 26, 2026 12:11 PM
·
Delays on year-round E15 keep potential corn demand and fuel savings in limbo.
February 26, 2026 10:53 AM
·
