WEST BEND, Wisc. (RFD-TV) — Harvest is nearly wrapped across the United States, and it is bringing in a whole lot of corn. The latest WASDE numbers confirm that, but analysts believe the upcoming report will look a bit different.
“I think, in the future, you’re going to see the corn yield number come down, and that shows up on the January WASDE,” said Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor at Total Farm Marketing. “Now that’s critical for the corn market. That’s the cornerstone piece that we need for 2026. Now here’s the deal. Corn demand is the bright spot in this whole marketplace. Corn demand for ethanol, solid, you know, closer to 5.5 billion bushels, so a third of what we grow goes right to ethanol. We’re having record corn exports this year, totaling 3 billion bushels. Fantastic.”
Yield estimates in the latest WASDE report are 186 bushels per acre, slightly higher than prior estimates but not a complete surprise. The USDA did raise its estimates for exports and total use, but not by much.
Rail Rate Cuts Shift Corn Shipping Costs Downward
Corn shippers will see lower freight costs this marketing year after both BNSF Railway and Union Pacific reduced many of their rail tariff rates for 2025/26. These changes come as producers and merchandisers work through tight margins and rising delivery risks, making transportation savings more valuable heading into winter.
BNSF left Pacific Northwest export rates unchanged but introduced steep cuts on routes serving Hereford, Texas, and Mexico, especially from Nebraska origins. Rates from Edison, Nebraska, dropped by $540 per car to Hereford and by $340 per car to Mexico. Elevators across Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota saw $200-per-car reductions to Hereford. Union Pacific followed with broad $150-per-car reductions across most domestic and Mexico routes, including lower costs from Nebraska to California and from Illinois to the Texas border.
These adjustments come as federal regulators propose new rail service reporting rules. The Surface Transportation Board wants railroads to begin tracking estimated arrival accuracy and local car placement performance, with public comments running through early December.
Corey Rosenbusch with The Fertilizer Institute joined us to discuss supply chain disruptions and what farmers should watch as global tensions impact fertilizer markets.
