NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A massive U.S. corn harvest is colliding with only incremental demand gains, keeping prices heavy into winter.
In an analysis for Mississippi State University, Will Maples noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) September projection of 16.8 billion bushels—nearly 1.5 billion above the 2023 record—would hold even if yields are trimmed post-harvest.
Most use sits in three bins: feed, ethanol, and exports
Feed demand is pegged near 6.1 billion bushels, the highest since at least 2000, supported by lower prices and rising grain-consuming animal units (100.8 in 2025 vs. 99.9 last year). Ethanol grind is projected around 5.6 billion bushels (up from 5.4), with year-round E15 still a potential kicker.
Exports are the standout
Sales are tracking toward a record 3.0 billion bushels, led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia—despite China’s absence since 2023/24 and a pause in weekly updates during the shutdown-scrapped October WASDE. Maples’ bottom line: strong use won’t outrun record supply, so price relief rests on final production and disciplined marketing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Total cash receipts from marketings of cattle, calves, hogs, and pigs climbed by 18% in 2025 to $165 billion.
March crush data showed stronger soybean and canola processing, but softer animal fat production.
Higher freight rates and potential service disruptions are key concerns for agriculture, which relies heavily on rail to move commodities.
Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor joins us to discuss the uncertain path for year-round E15 sales and the next steps as the issue heads toward a standalone House vote after it was stripped from the Farm Bill.
Seasonal pricing strength is lining up with crop stress, giving wheat producers another weather-driven marketing window. Shaun Haney joins us to discuss concerns from ag bankers on farm profitability.
In an exclusive interview with RFD News correspondent Frank McCaffrey, Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-TX) expresses frustration with delays and increasing political divisions surrounding the bill.
