Record Ethanol Output Lifts Production Pace Above Seasonal Norms

Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed to a new weekly production record as October closed, offering a strong signal of steady grind and favorable margins. According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, output for the week ending Oct. 31 rose 2.9% to 1.12 million barrels per day, equal to 47.17 million gallons daily. Production ran 1.6% above last year and 5.3% above the three-year average, with the four-week average climbing to 1.10 million b/d, an annualized rate of 16.91 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks also built, rising 1.3% to 22.7 million barrels, now running 2.9% ahead of last year and 4.2% above typical levels. Inventories increased in every region except the Rockies and West Coast, reflecting strong Midwest output and ample storage capacity. Gasoline supplied—an indicator of implied fuel demand—slipped 0.6% to 8.87 million b/d, a level slightly stronger than a year ago but still 2.6% below the three-year seasonal benchmark.

Refiner and blender net inputs of ethanol fell 0.8% to 904,000 b/d, a figure now 1.5% below last year but marginally above the longer-term average. Export volumes softened significantly, sliding 38.9% to an estimated 107,000 b/d, while EIA continued to report no imports for more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Related Stories
Protein-driven dairy growth is boosting beef supply potential, creating an opening to support rural jobs and ground beef availability.
U.S. agriculture entered the week with mixed signals as weather, logistics, and markets shaped early-year decisions. Here is a regional breakdown of domestic crop and livestock production for the week of Monday, Jan. 19, 2026.
While short-term volatility remains a risk, softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins.
Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Corn and beef exports showed strong momentum, cotton sales surged, and soybean sales held steady, though China remains absent from the U.S. market.
Cheaper freight is helping exports move, especially corn, but weaker soybean demand looms large.
Disease risks remain a key factor to watch heading into fall.
For rural communities, this shift could mean new housing options for farmworkers and young families priced out of metro markets.
The modest cut should slightly reduce borrowing costs on operating loans, land notes, and equipment financing for agriculture, giving some relief to producers under heavy debt loads.
Sen. Roger Marshall, a founding member and chairman of the Make America Healthy Again caucus, joined us with his thoughts on the commission’s latest report and the key ag-related issues.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.