NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected near record levels while demand lags, creating a third straight surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American rice. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
Fed cattle numbers are down two percent in February, according to the latest USDA report. Marketings fell 13 percent, signaling continued pressure on beef prices in 2026.
February 20, 2026 03:38 PM
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Fertilizer still consumes an unusually large share of crop value.
February 20, 2026 09:00 AM
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Kerry Hartwig from Sukup Manufacturing previews the grain management solutions they plan to share with producers at the upcoming Commodity Classic in San Antonio.
February 19, 2026 02:36 PM
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The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum highlights modest price support from tighter supplies across cotton, grains, dairy, livestock, and sugar into 2026.
February 19, 2026 01:48 PM
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The global rice surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
February 19, 2026 08:00 AM
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A weaker dollar supports export demand and may strengthen crop prices.
February 19, 2026 06:00 AM
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Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
February 18, 2026 04:18 PM
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Federal aid helps, but producers will bear most of the losses. Balance sheets may look stable, but margins remain fragile without policy support.
February 18, 2026 01:49 PM
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RFD NEWS Markets Specialist Tony St. James reviews the USDA’s Farms and Land in Farms 2025 Summary.
February 18, 2026 01:38 PM
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