NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected near record levels while demand lags, creating a third straight surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American rice. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
U.S. agriculture entered the week with mixed signals as weather, logistics, and markets shaped early-year decisions. Here is a regional breakdown of domestic crop and livestock production for the week of Monday, Jan. 19, 2026.
January 19, 2026 11:40 AM
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While short-term volatility remains a risk, softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins.
January 18, 2026 12:00 PM
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Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
January 18, 2026 07:00 AM
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RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey speaks with Texas’s Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez about USMCA renegotiation and its impact on U.S.–Mexico agriculture trade.
January 17, 2026 05:00 PM
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Rising rural business confidence supports local ag economies, but taxes and labor shortages remain key constraints.
January 17, 2026 02:00 PM
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Shaun Haney joined us to discuss Canada’s new trade agreement with China, the potential impact on farmers and exporters, and what it could mean for U.S.–Canada trade relations going forward.
January 16, 2026 01:16 PM
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National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
January 16, 2026 01:13 PM
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Soft equipment sales signal cautious farm spending as producers prioritize cash flow over expansion.
January 16, 2026 07:00 AM
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Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
January 15, 2026 01:36 PM
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