NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected to be near record levels, while demand lags, creating a third consecutive year of surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American crops. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
Cuba remains a steady, nearby buyer of U.S. poultry, pork, dairy, and staples, but legal and compliance risks could still affect shipping and payment channels.
February 12, 2026 10:00 AM
·
Agriculture remains a key drag on regional growth amid weak prices and policy uncertainty.
February 12, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.
February 12, 2026 06:00 AM
·
While access to China remains uncertain, U.S. beef exporters are finding resilience and opportunity in other global markets, which could help maintain industry value and expand export opportunities.
February 11, 2026 02:41 PM
·
Mike Spier, president and CEO of U.S. Wheat Associates, discusses the new U.S.-Bangladesh trade agreement and its potential benefits for U.S. wheat growers.
February 11, 2026 12:37 PM
·
Gretchen Kuck of the National Corn Growers Association joined us to discuss the Ag Coalition for USMCA’s report findings and expectations ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.
February 11, 2026 12:17 PM
·
