NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. rice producers are heading into 2026 facing lower prices even as supplies tighten, according to University of Arkansas economist Ryan Loy.
U.S. rice acreage totaled about 2.8 million acres in 2025, with roughly 2.7 million harvested after spring flooding reduced plantings across the Midsouth. Long-grain ending stocks are projected near 34.6 million bushels — similar to last year — but the average farm price is forecast to drop to about $10.50 per hundredweight from roughly $14.00 the previous marketing year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Global conditions are driving the decline. Worldwide production is expected to be near record levels, while demand lags, creating a third consecutive year of surplus. Large exportable supplies from Asia — especially India — continue pressuring prices across major exporters.
Competition remains strongest in Western Hemisphere markets where U.S. rice competes with South American crops. A smaller Mercosur crop could help support market share, though high beginning stocks in Brazil limit upside potential. U.S. long-grain exports during the first half of the marketing year already fell 31 percent from a year earlier.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney says farmers there are already sounding the alarm about what this could mean for the future of ag research.
February 03, 2026 01:03 PM
·
Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.
February 03, 2026 12:50 PM
·
Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
February 03, 2026 12:22 PM
·
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
February 02, 2026 12:13 PM
·
Winter Weather And Markets Reshape Agriculture Nationwide This Week
February 02, 2026 12:04 PM
·
Shrinking sheep numbers contrast with gradual goat expansion, signaling tighter lamb supplies but steadier growth potential for meat goats.
February 02, 2026 10:29 AM
·
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
January 30, 2026 02:21 PM
·
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
January 30, 2026 01:13 PM
·
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
January 30, 2026 12:51 PM
·
