NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — The key global shipping corridor in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, continues to cause more shakeups in the markets. Economists in Minnesota say equities have taken the biggest hit, but note that some commodity markets could be turning around, especially corn and soybean prices.
“Driving the soybean market is soybean oil and renewable diesel, and a lot of what drives the corn market is the demand for corn in ethanol production — those are fuels,” explains Ed Usset. “Those are energy markets, and this is good for soybean and corn prices — and what the heck — even wheat is following up. It’s creating opportunities for both old and new crop sales.”
Usset does have concerns, though, warning that corn farmers may not have enough fertilizer supplies to kick off the season.
Ag shipping groups are also concerned about access to fertilizer. Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition told RFD NEWS on Tuesday that many farmers secured supplies months ago, but others weren’t looking that far ahead.
“There were a lot of farmers who wanted to wait and see, hoping for fertilizer costs to go down before they make some of these financial commitments,” Steenhoek explained. “And so obviously this is now a real challenge with the fertilizer supply chain. For example, a lot of the urea the world consumes originates in countries in the Persian Gulf. So, it obviously is a real concern. A lot of fertilizer shipments occur during months in the United States, northbound in the months of March and April, obviously to coincide with spring planting.”
There is no telling when geopolitical tensions will return to normal, and Steenhoek says it will still take some time to get the ag supply chain back up and running at full speed once the dust settles.
“Supply chains don’t often rebound. They don’t snap back like a rubber band,” he said. “You have some challenge, and then you would hope that it would just snap back and emerge and reassert itself very quickly. That doesn’t always happen. And so, when you have a challenge like this, you know, it could be a considerable period of time before things return to normal.”
Steenhoek says everything right now is bad news for farmers looking to turn a profit this year. He likens the current situation to a bucket, saying a few small issues along the way can cause a big leak, ultimately hurting farmers and ranchers. Fertilizer economists are also concerned about profitability this year. Josh Linville at Stone-X told RFD NEWS that the longer the war drags on, the worse an already bad situation will get.
“We’re all focused on the nitrogen market. You have been talking about the fact that Saudi Arabia, which is the world’s third-largest phosphate exporter, also walked behind the strain of portability,” Linville said. “So this is, this is not just the nitrogen market. This is also having a major impact on phosphate. And our issue is — this is now getting from a bad situation to worse — because now, all of a sudden, LNG gas shipments in the Strait are also shut down. When you start to look at countries like Pakistan, India, and China, which are relying on imported gas to feed their facilities to produce their own tons. Those are starting to have an impact. Now we’re starting to see that second, that third layer of impact on the marketplace. And as bad as it is, it can absolutely get worse.”
A number of ag groups are frustrated with the lack of fertilizer shipments. Sixty-four groups wrote a letter to companies like Mosaic, urging them to back a push to remove duties against phosphate imports from Morocco. They say that would alleviate concerns about fertilizer availability this spring.
The American Soybean Association also signed on to that request. Earlier this week, ASA President Scott Metzger told RFD NEWS that growers already are seeing a slowdown in fertilizer shipments. Putting more strain on an already hurting industry.
“Prices have just escalated that much higher with everything else that’s going on, and even to the point now, we know we’ve talked to some producers in the Upper Midwest, states that they’re priced $28/bushel, but they’re not even able to get it yet,” Metzger said. “So, it’s a growing concern as we get closer to spring planning. It’s going to become top of the list, for sure. It already is top-of-the-list, but the concern is going to become bigger with it.”
Trade issues are another big concern. Metzger was in Washington, D.C. recently, stumping for biofuels. He tells us that more domestic use of their product is crucial in the coming months.
“With that domestic consumption, that’s going to be important. It’s a step in the right direction,” Metzger said. “It’s not going to take care of all of the trade we’ve lost with China, but it is a step in the right direction that can fuel the economy in various other ways, as well as dollars being spent beyond that. And then also trade. I mean, that’s also got to be the top of the priority lists. And with that, getting USMCA, getting that 16-year deal done again, you know, Mexico’s our number two buyer of soybeans. So that’s also a great step in the right direction.”
A big trade milestone is around the corner, but some are worried it could now be delayed. President Trump is set to meet with China’s President Xi in less than two weeks. But the White House has since warned that the meeting could be pushed back as President Trump navigates the war with Iran.
Fertilizer supply chain disruptions are raising concerns about potential impacts on U.S. agriculture and rural communities. Hunter Carpenter with the Agricultural Retailers Association (ARADC) joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to discuss how geopolitical events are affecting the farm sector.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Carpenter outlined front-line impacts, including higher input costs and uncertainty in securing fertilizer supplies, warning that if farmers reduce acreage in response, it could ripple through U.S. agricultural production, affecting crop output and long-term profitability.
He emphasized that these disruptions extend beyond the farm gate, affecting rural communities economically by reducing demand for local services, labor, and infrastructure.
Carpenter also discussed the letter to President Trump sent by the ARADC and other farm groups, highlighting both short-term actions and long-term supply chain solutions needed to stabilize the sector.
Finally, Carpenter urged farmers and policymakers to remain proactive, emphasizing collaboration and strategic planning to minimize supply chain disruptions of key farm inputs and protect the broader agricultural economy from skyrocketing costs stemming from the conflict in Iran.
