LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Milk prices are falling rapidly as expanding supplies overwhelm seasonal demand, creating growing financial pressure for U.S. dairy producers. According to Dr. David Anderson, livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the usual holiday demand boost for butter and cheese failed to materialize this fall as milk production surged to multi-decade highs.
Strong milk prices in 2024 and lower feed costs encouraged herd expansion, while added processing capacity supported higher output. High cattle prices also contributed, boosting dairy revenues through higher cull cow values and record prices for beef-on-dairy calves. By September 2025, the U.S. dairy herd reached 9.581 million head — the largest since the early 1990s — while milk production per cow continued to climb.
Higher cow numbers and improved productivity pushed October milk output up nearly 4 percent from a year earlier. As supplies built, dairy product prices slid sharply. Butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk prices all dropped well below last year, pulling Class III and Class IV milk prices lower.
Some herd contraction is expected, though strong cull and calf values may slow supply adjustments.
Tennessee State Veterinarian Dr. Samantha Batey joined us with the latest on biosecurity efforts and the state’s new “Know Before You Show” initiative.
February 02, 2026 12:29 PM
·
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller discusses the state’s latest efforts to prevent the New World screwworm from reaching Texas.
February 02, 2026 12:22 PM
·
Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
January 30, 2026 03:42 PM
·
Quinn Rutt of Upstream Ranch previews the Nebraska cattle operation’s 49th Annual Production Sale where buyers can expect standout sire groups and a blend of long-standing ranch practices with modern genetic selection.
January 30, 2026 03:23 PM
·
CattleCon 2026 officially kicks off Tuesday and continues through Thursday, bringing producers together to shape the future of the U.S. cattle industry.
January 30, 2026 01:30 PM
·
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
January 30, 2026 12:51 PM
·
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
January 30, 2026 11:44 AM
·
A rapidly intensifying winter storm is expected to develop into a bomb cyclone this weekend, affecting the Southeast, southern Virginia, and potentially parts of the mid‑Atlantic and New England.
January 30, 2026 10:52 AM
AFBF Economist Danny Munch shares a closer look at the dairy market and the forces impacting producers today.
January 29, 2026 02:52 PM
·
