LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Milk prices are falling rapidly as expanding supplies overwhelm seasonal demand, creating growing financial pressure for U.S. dairy producers. According to Dr. David Anderson, livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the usual holiday demand boost for butter and cheese failed to materialize this fall as milk production surged to multi-decade highs.
Strong milk prices in 2024 and lower feed costs encouraged herd expansion, while added processing capacity supported higher output. High cattle prices also contributed, boosting dairy revenues through higher cull cow values and record prices for beef-on-dairy calves. By September 2025, the U.S. dairy herd reached 9.581 million head — the largest since the early 1990s — while milk production per cow continued to climb.
Higher cow numbers and improved productivity pushed October milk output up nearly 4 percent from a year earlier. As supplies built, dairy product prices slid sharply. Butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk prices all dropped well below last year, pulling Class III and Class IV milk prices lower.
Some herd contraction is expected, though strong cull and calf values may slow supply adjustments.
U.S. produce growers face a structural disadvantage—cheaper imports driving down prices while rising labor costs squeeze margins. Without new policies or technology, profitability remains uncertain.
September 23, 2025 04:09 PM
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UNL Animal Science Ph.D candidate Anna Kobza joined us on Tuesday’s
Market Day Report to share her agriculture story and tips for other producers hoping to share their ag stories online or with the media.
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Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
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“We believe that it is just a matter of days or weeks... before we see New World screwworm in Texas.”
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Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply.
September 23, 2025 10:35 AM
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September 23, 2025 09:42 AM
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According to the most recent version of the Household Food Security Report for 2022-2023, food insecurity is on the rise in the U.S.
September 22, 2025 01:49 PM
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USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
September 22, 2025 12:30 PM
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Fewer cattle on feed suggest smaller slaughter numbers this winter, which could support strong prices if beef demand holds firm.
September 22, 2025 11:10 AM
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