LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD News) — Rural families could face longer travel times and fewer specialty-care options as the United States moves toward a projected shortage of nearly 28,000 surgeons by 2038. A study presented at the American College of Surgeons annual meeting says rural communities are expected to feel the effects most sharply.
Researchers used a federal workforce model covering 10 surgical specialties from 2023 through 2038. The projections show surgeon supply falling 4.2% while demand rises 12.8%, creating an estimated shortage of 27,940 surgeons nationwide.
The largest gaps are expected in vascular surgery, ophthalmology, thoracic surgery and plastic surgery. The study projects available surgeons would meet only 65.8% of vascular-surgery demand and 71.8% of ophthalmology demand by 2038.
For rural residents, the shortage could mean longer waits and more travel for specialty procedures. Many rural communities already have fewer hospitals and specialists, making access more difficult when surgical services are unavailable locally.
The projections are based on workforce modeling rather than current vacancies, but they highlight growing pressure on rural healthcare access as demand increases and surgeon supply declines.
