NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 after three months of gains, while the Uncertainty Index jumped to 100 — one of the highest readings in decades.
For rural America, where farm supply dealers, repair shops, haulers, and service businesses anchor local economies, softer sentiment and higher uncertainty can translate into tighter margins, cautious hiring, and more selective inventory buying as harvest cash flows move through towns.
Price pressure remains a headwind. A net 24 percent of owners raised prices, and 31 percent plan to do so in the next three months; 14 percent named inflation as their top problem.
Supply chain effects touched 64 percent of firms, up 10 points. Inventory readings swung sharply, with a net negative 7% calling stocks “too low” — the largest monthly decline on record.
Labor stayed tight: 32 percent reported unfilled openings; among those hiring, 88 percent saw few or no qualified applicants. Compensation rose at a net 31 percent of firms, with 19 percent planning increases.
Credit and investment conditions are steady but not strong. A net 7 percent said their last loan was harder to get, and the average short-term rate rose to 8.8 percent. Capital outlays held flat, and sales trends stayed negative on net — signals that rural main streets may lean conservative on equipment, vehicles, and expansion through winter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect firmer shop prices, leaner inventories, and selective hiring in ag-adjacent businesses — plan parts, service, and financing needs earlier.
Imported lean beef continues to play a critical role in U.S. hamburger and ground-beef production, with any added volume from Argentina serving as a supplement — not a market overhaul.
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Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
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American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
October 23, 2025 02:20 PM
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Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
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Record Australian exports and rising U.S. imports reflect continued tight domestic cattle supplies — a reminder that herd recovery remains key to balancing future beef prices.
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