NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 after three months of gains, while the Uncertainty Index jumped to 100 — one of the highest readings in decades.
For rural America, where farm supply dealers, repair shops, haulers, and service businesses anchor local economies, softer sentiment and higher uncertainty can translate into tighter margins, cautious hiring, and more selective inventory buying as harvest cash flows move through towns.
Price pressure remains a headwind. A net 24 percent of owners raised prices, and 31 percent plan to do so in the next three months; 14 percent named inflation as their top problem.
Supply chain effects touched 64 percent of firms, up 10 points. Inventory readings swung sharply, with a net negative 7% calling stocks “too low” — the largest monthly decline on record.
Labor stayed tight: 32 percent reported unfilled openings; among those hiring, 88 percent saw few or no qualified applicants. Compensation rose at a net 31 percent of firms, with 19 percent planning increases.
Credit and investment conditions are steady but not strong. A net 7 percent said their last loan was harder to get, and the average short-term rate rose to 8.8 percent. Capital outlays held flat, and sales trends stayed negative on net — signals that rural main streets may lean conservative on equipment, vehicles, and expansion through winter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect firmer shop prices, leaner inventories, and selective hiring in ag-adjacent businesses — plan parts, service, and financing needs earlier.
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
September 22, 2025 10:52 AM
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The USDA NASS report also confirms lower August placements.
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Ethanol producers face a widening opportunity window as aviation and marine fuel markets expand, with the potential to add billions in demand if policy and certification align.
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Lawmakers and ag industry groups welcomed the confirmations, citing the direct impact of these leaders on western ranchers, water and land management, conservation programs, and regulatory reform.
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All eyes will be on today’s Cattle on Feed Report, which analysts say could give a clearer picture of where the market goes next.
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According to the National Council of Farmers Cooperatives (NCFC), President and CEO Chuck Conner says, there is only one other option besides addressing ag labor shortages.
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For rural communities, this shift could mean new housing options for farmworkers and young families priced out of metro markets.
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The Fertilizer Research Act, reintroduced by Sens. Grassley, Ernst, and Baldwin, would direct the USDA to study and publish public reports on competition and pricing trends in the fertilizer market.
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Allowing year-round sales of E15 nationally could deliver billions in economic gains, according to a new study from the Renewable Fuels Association and National Corn Growers Association.
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