NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 after three months of gains, while the Uncertainty Index jumped to 100 — one of the highest readings in decades.
For rural America, where farm supply dealers, repair shops, haulers, and service businesses anchor local economies, softer sentiment and higher uncertainty can translate into tighter margins, cautious hiring, and more selective inventory buying as harvest cash flows move through towns.
Price pressure remains a headwind. A net 24 percent of owners raised prices, and 31 percent plan to do so in the next three months; 14 percent named inflation as their top problem.
Supply chain effects touched 64 percent of firms, up 10 points. Inventory readings swung sharply, with a net negative 7% calling stocks “too low” — the largest monthly decline on record.
Labor stayed tight: 32 percent reported unfilled openings; among those hiring, 88 percent saw few or no qualified applicants. Compensation rose at a net 31 percent of firms, with 19 percent planning increases.
Credit and investment conditions are steady but not strong. A net 7 percent said their last loan was harder to get, and the average short-term rate rose to 8.8 percent. Capital outlays held flat, and sales trends stayed negative on net — signals that rural main streets may lean conservative on equipment, vehicles, and expansion through winter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect firmer shop prices, leaner inventories, and selective hiring in ag-adjacent businesses — plan parts, service, and financing needs earlier.
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As the new year begins, both farmers and rural families are taking stock of their finances and planning ahead for 2026.
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Strong export demand supports feed grain prices, but drought risk and seasonal patterns favor disciplined early-year marketing.
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The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
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On a spreadsheet, it looks like the ultimate way to harvest extra profit. But in the eyes of the IRS—as RFD-TV Farm Legal & Tax Expert Roger McEowen explains—this “tax-free” bank can quickly turn into a field full of weeds.
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Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
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