LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD News) — Cotton prices have rallied after hedge funds shifted from a net short position to a net long position in ICE cotton futures. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Cotton Economist John Robinson says the speculative move coincided with roughly a 20-cent increase in nearby cotton futures.
Robinson says hedge funds had remained net short on cotton for nearly two years, a trend that aligned with relatively low and flat nearby ICE cotton settlements before shifting in April 2026.
Robinson says hedge funds had been net short for about two years. That position matched a relatively low and flat pattern in nearby ICE cotton settlements before the April 2026 turn.
The move likely started with buying to cover open short positions, then expanded into new long buying. That kind of speculative activity can push prices higher faster than crop fundamentals alone might justify.
The broader cotton outlook remains more neutral. Robinson says projected 2026/27 ending stocks are within 500,000 bales of the 2025/26 estimate.
Weather may now drive the next move, with early dryness and possible El Niño moisture shaping crop expectations and price risk.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Cotton growers may want pre-harvest pricing plans ready because speculative buying can quickly add volatility to weather-driven markets.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Market analyst Kevin Huddleston said news of trade deals could rebound cotton prices in late fall, and producers need to be ready to strike deals.
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