PLATTE CITY, MO. (RFD-TV) — All eight major U.S. fertilizer products are now more expensive than a year ago, adding pressure to farm budgets as producers prepare for fall applications and the 2027 growing season.
Josh Linville, director of fertilizer at StoneX, said international conflicts and shipping disruptions are driving market uncertainty, while strong manufacturer sales are making it difficult for some prices to ease.
“One of the biggest surprises, I think, for a lot of buyers out there, specifically the farmers, is how much this is all internationally driven,” Linville said.
Global Disruptions Drive Fertilizer Markets
Linville pointed to the Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz as examples of international events affecting fertilizer production and supply chains far beyond the regions where they occur.
He said uncertainty is also affecting European production as natural gas prices rise, adding another source of pressure to global fertilizer markets.
“It’s a few events that continue to drag on, but they’re having world implications,” Linville said. “It doesn’t matter what corner of the world you’re on. It has an impact on your operation.”
UAN and Anhydrous Ammonia Face Different Pressures
Within North America, Linville said UAN has experienced a particularly sharp price increase and is carrying a substantial premium over urea and anhydrous ammonia.
He attributed the strength in UAN prices partly to strong manufacturer sales during the summer and expanded production that allowed manufacturers to extend sales into 2027.
“Manufacturers are very comfortable. They sold very little reason to need to drop their price,” Linville said.
Anhydrous ammonia is also facing tight supplies as the fall application season approaches. Linville said manufacturers are well sold, making it difficult for prices to move lower.
Reopening Shipping Routes Would Not Immediately Solve Supply Problems
Linville said fertilizer prices could fall quickly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returned to normal, at least initially.
“I do believe you’ll see market prices come off almost immediately globally speaking,” he said.
However, he expects buyers to return as prices decline, potentially supporting another increase before the market gradually moves toward more normal pricing.
Linville said reopening a shipping route would not immediately restore the capacity needed to move fertilizer through the region. Loading facilities can handle only a certain volume of product and number of vessels each day, regardless of how much fertilizer is waiting to ship.
“You don’t solve this thing that’s been going on for eight months now overnight because that body of water reopened,” Linville said.
Linville Recommends Layering Fertilizer Purchases
With fertilizer prices elevated, Linville encouraged producers to stay engaged with the market rather than avoid purchasing decisions while waiting for better prices.
“There are opportunities to pop up from time to time. They’re fleeting, but when you’re watching more often, you’re able to jump on those,” he said.
He pointed to a recent increase in new-crop corn prices to $5.50 per bushel as an example of a market move that briefly improved fertilizer values relative to crop prices.
Linville also advised farmers against buying all their fertilizer at once. Instead, he recommended buying in stages so producers can secure a portion when prices look favorable while keeping the option to buy more if prices decline.
“You don’t have to buy it all at once. Buy a layer,” Linville said.
If prices rise, he said, the initial purchase protects against further increases. If prices fall, producers can add another layer at a lower price and reduce their overall average cost.
